AT&T to Ms. Parks: “Go to the back of the bus!”

You may have noticed this news item about a class action lawsuit against AT&T Mobility and Radio Shack.

So, how did we get to the place where Billie Parks, an honest subscriber, gets surprised with a $5000 bill?

Fundamentally, the problem is that mobile broadband has deployed onto a scarce resource, namely wireless spectrum. So, YES, 3G and 4G technologies are capable of multi-megabit download speeds, and, NO, they cannot provide those speeds to all of the subscribers in a sector at the same time.

The solution to this problem, in AT&T’s view, is to charge an additional fee for each Megabyte of data consumed above 5 Gigabytes during the month.

Huh??? How does that solve the problem???

I guess in AT&T Mobility’s view the answer is obvious: the economic penalty for consuming more than 5GB is so steep that Billie Parks will willingly stop consuming data when her limit is reached. Then, with Ms Parks offline, or in the back of the bus, so to speak, there will be room on the channel for other subscribers to consume their share of those multi-megabit download speeds.

That logic is flawed and has appeared to work for a few years, but only because 5GB is plenty for the road warriors using laptops that need ubiquitous access to email, and because the devices that consumers use are not well suited to consuming lots of entertainment. Why would anyone want to pull 5GB of video down to a cell phone???? They wouldn’t, of course.

But Billie is a consumer, interested in entertainment, and using a laptop.

AT&T Mobility extended the subsidy model beyond cell phones to include ultraportable laptops with built-in HSPA, and the result is a very attractively priced computer.

If you are one of the many computer users that have grown to love watching TV shows via Hulu, then you can imagine why Billie Parks ran over her limit. The logic goes like this:

Billie: “I have a trusty old computer at home and I watch my favorite Hulu TV shows on it. AT&T and Radio Shack jointly offered to sell me a very attractive new laptop for $100. How can I pass that up? Now I can watch my Hulu shows anywhere!”

AT&T’s response: “Yup, you sure can.” (And in fine print): “Oh, but be sure to stop watching when you get to 5 GB.“

And then Billie is supposed to say: “OK, I’ll check my account on AT&T’s website frequently and the 5GB limit will probably be reached at a time that is convenient for me.”

Yeah, right.

The real solution to the problem lies not with economic penalties, but with the integration of billing systems and QOS controls. I’ve mentioned wireless broadband QOS in previous posts (here, here) and I’ll keep bringing it up because it is a topic I’m passionate about.

Billie Parks was offered one choice of service:

• Best Effort Hi Rate Pkt Data (HRPD), with a 5GB cap, for $60 per month
  • Good for email, browsing and file downloads
  • Also good for Hulu if the sector is lightly loaded

But mobile packet data service needs should be segmented into multiple categories:

According to the segmentation in that table, here are the service options she could be offered instead:

• Best Effort Low Rate Pkt Data (LRPD), no cap, $10 per month
  • Good for email, Machine-to-Machine telemetry, GIS tracking, instant messaging
• Streaming LRPD, no cap, $15 per month
  • Good for PTT voice but not full-duplex voice
• Realtime Streaming LRPD, no cap, sold in minute usage bundles
  • Good for voice telephony
• Best Effort HRPD, no cap, $40 per month
  • Good for browsing and file downloads, but you may not be satisfied with the result if you try streaming data – depends on sector loading
• Streaming HRPD, no cap, $60 per month
  • Good for video entertainment like Hulu
• Realtime Streaming HRPD, no cap, sold in minute usage bundles
  • Good for video telephony (a future service)

(My price suggestions are just that, and the market will ultimately determine pricing.)

Note that I proposed no caps on any service. When QOS controls are used it’s not necessary to also use caps and penalties to motivate certain usage patterns. QOS will allocate the available bandwidth in the sector according to the service that the subscriber is authorized to receive. And if too many subscribers are authorized for the available bandwidth, then the next subscriber will be denied service, or offered a lower-grade of service. In this manner, when a sector approaches its capacity limits, users with “best effort” subscriptions will find their connection to be slow and intermittent, while users with “streaming” subscriptions will continue to receive satisfactory service. Wa-la! People get what they paid for, with no caps and no billing surprises.

My friend Dan commented about Billie Parks’ lawsuit at lunch yesterday, saying “she’s the Rosa Parks of wireless.” Hopefully her stand against the archaic usage caps will accelerate the deployment of QOS based service offerings on the part of the mobile operators. I’m definitely pulling for her to win this one.

3G: It’s Not Just About Cell Phones

Now that title doesn’t surprise very many readers, I’m certain. Nearly all of us are familiar with the PC Card cellular modems that plug into laptops, and are aware that the newer USB versions have hit an even steeper trajectory of sales growth. One of my Cisco friends often says “I live on 3G,” and he’s referring to the reality that with his home in North Carolina, his co-workers in San Jose, and his customers spread in between, nearly all of his Internet consumption travels via the Verizon Wireless EVDO card in the laptop he uses while on the road.

 

Many of you are also aware of the rapid advancement of Machine to Machine (M2M) communications and the dozens of MVNOs sprouting up to focus on it. That industry uses 2G and 3G devices integrated into equipment, such as oil rigs, billboards and windmill generators, to transfer the real-time and non-real-time data needed to keep performance high and costs low.

 

But 3G is showing up in lots more places too, and we’ve only just begun to see the spread. I am personally intrigued with the use of 3G to enhance devices that we were familiar with in a prior version . In a previous posting I mentioned the recent arrival of 3G integrated into Personal Navigation Devices. I want to take that theme farther now and start building a list of newly connected devices.

 

So, here’s the criteria for making it on to the list:

–          Human oriented devices, that is, unlike M2M the purpose of the device must primarily serve for human consumption.

–          One of the following:

o       Devices whose traditional functionality is enhanced via the 3G connectivity.

o       Devices whose traditional functionality is maintained while valuable new functionality is added via the 3G connectivity

o       New devices that weren’t feasible or practical without the 3G connection

–          And of course, primarily voice oriented devices, such as cellphones, are excluded

 

Here’s the complete list of 3G enabled devices that I am currently aware of:

–          Amazon Kindle – A true breakthrough product, and even more so because I believe that most Kindle owners are only vaguely aware that the thing is using Sprint’s cellular network.

–          Personal Navigation Devices – notable for the absence of Garmin or Motorola

o       Dash

o       Insignia

–          IVC Remote Video Security Camera – Good news for construction companies. Now you can remotely monitor any location that falls within 3G coverage.

–          Vizit Photo Frame (coming Spring ’09) – In my view a digital photo frame is most useful in the role of bring Grandma into the loop of digital photography, allowing her to appreciate the photos you take of the kids without requiring all the messing around with printing. But, how many Grandmas have WiFi????  Send her this frame in the mail. She plugs it in. You send photos to it. Simple.

–          uConnect Web service (aka Autonet Mobile) available in 2009 Chrysler vehicles. Now the kids can keep their iPod Touches operating while the family is on the road.

–          LG Watch (LG-GD910) – OK, just what you always needed, video streaming to your wrist!

 

Please point me to other products that you know about and I’ll add them and give you credit.

 

Here’s some devices I’d like enhanced with 3G:

–          YouTube Video Cameras

–          Digital Cameras

–          Handheld Multi-Function Displays for aviation, e.g. the Garmin 696, using Aircell’s EVDO network

 

I’d love to hear your ideas for products that are ready to be connected.

Wireless Tectonics

There are two large technological land masses that dominate the lithosphere of wireless personal communications. Land Mobile Radio is the stable and slowly evolving workhorse of Public Safety, and many residents of that wireless continent are barely able to perceive any movement or change in the terrain. In sharp contrast, 3G Wireless is the hyper-volcanic and rapidly advancing mainland that is shaking the planet, and occasional meteor strikes re-shape its landscape overnight (think Apple iPhone).

 

And while it may have appeared that these two technologies were peacefully coexisting, LMR dominating Public Safety and 3G dominating the mass markets, we can now see that within the Public Safety arena they are actually colliding. The unfolding of that collision is not widely followed outside of the Public Safety industry, but it is a most interesting story to follow, especially if you are a follower of the strategies of all things wireless.

 

Continuing the metaphor for a moment, I’ll enumerate some of the contrasts that comprise the “fault-line” between these two technologies:

 

LMR networks support Push-to-Talk (PTT), which is half-duplex, group-based, voice communications.	3G networks support group based PTT, as well as 1-to-1 PTT and full-duplex voice
Most LMR radios will not operate outside of their home network	Most 3G devices roam successfully beyond their home network
LMR radios are expensive, often costing a few thousand dollars per unit	Most 3G devices are available for less than a few hundred dollars
The prospects for streaming video to an LMR radio anytime in the near future is not good	There are at least 3 video streaming services for 3G devices available today (MobiTV, VCast, MediaFLO)
LMR radios require auxiliary equipment to provide a GPS location	Most 3G devices have integrated GPS capabilities and also support Assisted GPS so that indoor location fixes are possible

 

3G looks very favorable, but as there are two sides to every coin so there are some very good reasons that a firefighter running into a burning building carries an LMR portable unit rather than an iPhone. Here’s some advantages for LMR:

–          Demonstrated ruggedness – confidence that the radio will operate regardless of how it is treated.

–          Even handhelds have big batteries and 3 watts of power

–          Spectrum bands that propagate farther and penetrate better than most cellular bands, especially PCS

–          Base stations are equipped with backup power

–          Simplicity of design, at least for conventional LMR: when you press the Talk button you get to talk, period. No arbitration by a computer about who gets to talk. If two people are talking at the same time then the one yelling the loudest will be heard the best. That’s what I would want if I were suddenly being fired at by the driver I just pulled over for running a stop sign.

 

In short, an LMR network is designed to be a life-critical communications tool that is exclusive to the government or enterprise organization that owns it, while a 3G network is designed to provide ubiquitous, profitable advanced services for the mass market.

 

These “continents” don’t converge very nicely. Or do they? I propose that this convergence will proceed incrementally, without major “earthquakes” as 3G enters the Public Safety domain, and with great benefits to Public Safety organizations. Convergence may be the wrong term however, because for the foreseeable future I believe that both network technologies will continue to exist independently. What will be different is the relative roles of LMR and 3G in Public Safety communications.

 

In Public Safety today, LMR dominates while 3G augments LMR and provides some data capabilities at better cost and performance than LMR can. For example many police vehicles are equipped with laptop computers that are wirelessly connected using 3G aircards.

 

But the domination and augmentation roles will gradually reverse. Eventually, 3G networks will become the dominant solution for Public Safety voice, video, data, and location based services, and LMR will augment 3G by providing life-critical communications to specific types of front-line first responders.  Two large steps towards this future are about to occur:

1. The interoperation of PTT voice between commercial 3G networks and private LMR networks. With this capability the Public Safety PTT talkgroups will begin consisting of a hybrid user base – some carrying radios and others carrying cellphones. Regardless of the device type, when a member of the group presses the talk button and speaks all of the group members will hear it. Once this capability achieves moderate deployment the role-reversal will begin in earnest; personnel that once were loathe to part with their radio will find themselves seduced by the capabilities offered by the cellphone.
2. The 700 MHz D Block  auction will complete sometime in 2009. Even though the networks built for this spectrum must give special priority to Public Safety users none of them will be built out with LMR gear. The D Block will be deployed with some mix of 3G and 4G technology, or perhaps 4G exclusively.

 

Both of these advancements were recently tested by the US Department of Homeland Security, in a pilot called Radio Over Wireless-Broadband (ROW-B).

 

As this role reversal proceeds the market is adjusting and beginning to incorporate other LMR-style capabilities into 3G networks, for example:

–        PTT will become more capable and widely deployed on 3G (VzW  & Sprint ).

–        More rugged devices will become available (see Sonim , Casio )

–        Backup power for base stations will arrive sooner rather than later

 

The next several years will see some dramatic shifts for residents of the Public Safety continent as the 3G world encroaches. LMR will continue to provide a steady hand-hold as the convergence proceeds, but the landscape of new capabilities that regularly arrive will remind all that this is a new world.

3G – It’s not just about speed

There is no debate about it – 3G Wireless is a huge advancement over 2G. However, if the trade press is the only basis for this conclusion then the advantage of 3G is completely attributable to the increased bandwidth available in both the downlink and uplink (forward link and reverse link).

 

Increased bits per hertz and bandwidth are very important, but there are other leaps forward in 3G that are equally important. Here’s a few of my favorites:

 

• Faster channel activation. Packet data connections are supposed to be “always on.” But in wireless it is not practical to keep the physical layer always on, due to the high cost of spectrum and also due to the battery consumption associated with operating the radio. In 3G Wireless a packet session can be activated from dormant to active in far less time than in 2G. The result is a much closer approximation to an “always on” user experience.
• Quality of Service. In the wired Internet the common use of over-provisioning has resulted in almost no need for Quality of Service (QOS) capabilities in the infrastructure. Characteristics such as latency, jitter and packet loss can all be addressed more cost effectively in the wired world by over-provisioning bandwidth (the wonders of fiber optics!). QOS controls become important when over-provisioning is not cost effective, and by using them applications that need good QOS, such VoIP, can efficiently coexist with applications that do not, such as email. 3G networks, beginning with EVDO Rev A and HSPA, have built-in the capability to allow applications to request and receive reservations for the QOS levels that are necessary for a good user experience.
• Broadcast/Multicast. Nextel’s iDEN network includes the ingenious capability to broadcast a single stream to multiple devices in the same cell-sector using a single channel. In their case it is used for the Push-to-Talk service, whereby many users can be participating in the same walkie-talkie conversation, and if several of those users are in the same sector they can all listen using the same channel. 3G Wireless will have a similar capability, although I am not aware that it has been deployed anywhere in the US as of this date. Some of my associates claim that it has been implemented in KDDI’s network in Japan, but I have not heard what types of applications have used it, if any. I’d love to hear any info others have to offer on this.

In my view 3G Wireless represents the transition between pure circuit voice and pure packet voice. 2G Wireless only supported full-duplex voice via circuit telephony. 4G Wireless will only support full-duplex voice via packet data (VoIP). 3G Wireless can support full-duplex voice using either circuits or packet data.

 

 So in the near term the bandwidth advantages of 3G certainly justify its adoption. But the other advancements that arrive with 3G will enable even greater progress in wireless applications. It’s not just about the speed!